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</html>";s:4:"text";s:16297:"Figure 5: Dropbox’s Peers Are More Profitable, Competitive Pressures Force Costs To Rise Faster Than Revenue. The key variables are the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) and ROIC for assessing different hurdle rates for a deal to create value. 44 million paying users also translates to 2.5% of the global cloud storage market share. The other players boasting a double-digit usage share were Dropbox with 17%, Amazon Cloud Drive with 15% and Google Drive with 10%. Dropbox. Figure 13: Implied Acquisition Prices to Create Value. The most notable adjustment to shareholder value was $1 billion in excess cash. Figure 13 shows the implied values for DBX assuming Salesforce wants to achieve an ROIC on the acquisition that equals 8% and is greater than its WACC. Figure 7: Dropbox’s Reported FCF vs. Growing registered and paying users is a serious uphill battle for Dropbox since most of its potential paying users are already customers of firms that provide the same service as Dropbox along with many other important services. ... Dropbox is a file hosting service that offers cloud storage, file synchronization, personal cloud, and client software. After adjusting for all liabilities, I can model multiple purchase price scenarios. Dropbox has beaten earnings in each of the past ten quarters. As featured in the HBS & MIT Sloan paper, Core Earnings: New Data and Evidence, our superior data drives uniquely comprehensive and independent debt and equity investment ratings, valuation models and research tools. The cloud storage market size is valued at $46.25 billion in 2019 and is expected to reach $222.5 billion by 2027, with a CAGR of 21% from 2020 to 2025. Dropbox lets anyone upload and transfer files to the cloud, and share them with anyone. Dropbox makes moving between personal, business, and enterprise-level plans easy by transferring your account to the new plan without changing file configurations.Google Drive for Business plans start at 30GB of storage per user at the Basic level, while Business and Enterprise plans give users unlimited storage with some extra features. Dropbox’s share of the global cloud storage market has fallen from 4.4% in 2017 to 3.6% in 2019 as more competitors enter the space and existing competition ramped up storage options. Despite years of rapid revenue growth and reaching profitability, the future for this cloud-based storage provider is murky at best. More broadly, Axler worries that Dropbox has saturated its cloud-storage market. Dropbox Business starts at 2TB of storage for the Standard plan, but Advanced and Enterprise plans receive unlimited storage in the cloud. For instance, Apple offers all of its customers 5 GB of free space through iCloud. For instance, the firm adds back stock-based compensation, a non-cash, but very real expense that dilutes shareholder value, to its calculation of FCF. Top Leading Companies of Global Private Cloud Storage Market are Amazon Cloud Drive, Ubuntu One, Apple iCloud, Dropbox, Google Drive, Box, Microsoft SkyDrive, MediaFire, SpiderOak, Mega and others. One of the most notable adjustments was $20 million in operating leases. Even if Dropbox can grow revenue by 14% compounded annually for five years and achieve a 4% NOPAT margin, the firm is worth less than $19/share. While this stock has outperformed as a short, it could fall much further. Because Dropbox started as a small company, freemium provided a way for more people to try the product and thus enabled people to experience the superior services, therefore expanded their market share. For this analysis, I chose Salesforce.com Inc. (CRM) as a potential acquirer of Dropbox since Dropbox already integrates with Salesforce’s cloud-based platform and such vertical integration would give Salesforce greater in-house services and access to Dropbox’s over 600 million registered users. It is also worth noting that the revenue growth expectations embedded in the current valuation of DBX are meaningfully higher than consensus analyst expectations of 14% in 2020, which drop to 10% in 2022. Sharing. Cloud storage isn’t just about uploading your files. See the math behind this reverse DCF scenario. Back up and sync docs, photos, videos, and other files to cloud storage and access them from any device, no matter where you are. Cloud Storage Market Share by Region, 2017. Cloud drive storage to save photos, music, docs, video! Figure 12: Implied Acquisition Prices for Value-Neutral Deal. And with advanced sharing features, it’s easy to share docs and send files—large or small—to family, friends, and co-workers. This paper compares our analytics on a mega cap company to other major providers. With ties to revenue and stock price, it’s not surprising that the firm’s executive compensation plan has not created shareholder value. Dropbox (DBX) is a pioneer of cloud storage. With COVID-19-induced disruptions forcing most businesses to adapt their operations to be more remote friendly, Dropbox was in prime position to gain market share. True FCF. [1] My firm’s core earnings are a superior measure of profits, as demonstrated in Core Earnings: New Data & Evidence a paper by professors at Harvard Business School (HBS) & MIT Sloan. Software Solution. By using our services, you agree to our use of cookies, Dropbox: Cloud Storage to Backup, Sync, File Share, By purchasing this item, you are transacting with Google Payments and agreeing to the Google Payments. The second platform on our list enjoyed popularity among consumers as an easy-to-use file storage suite, although it has shifted towards the enterprise market in recent years. When I close the accounting loopholes, I find that over the past three years, Dropbox generated a cumulative $329 million in true FCF and that FCF is rapidly declining. Over the past three years, Dropbox states it generated $1.3 billion in free cash flow (FCF). Balance Sheet: I made $1.4 billion of adjustments to calculate invested capital with a net decrease of $853 million. Consensus estimates show that the market expects the firm’s revenue growth rate to decline from 14% in 2020 to just 10% in 2022. Further, Dropbox’s relative underperformance to its stronger peers during the COVID-19 disruptions could cause investors to wake up to the fact that Dropbox is losing market share and cause them to rotate their money into better investments. So users of those apps always hav… In other words, DBX’s current valuation implies the company will grow its paying user base to equal 30% of Amazon Prime members and 22% of Microsoft Office 365 subscribers today. He was a 5-yr member of FASB's Investors Advisory Committee. Dropbox has generated negative economic earnings in each of the past four years. Most of Dropbox’s competition is more profitable too. I think potential acquirers would be better off leaving cloud storage to the firms that can offer cloud storage as a free add-on to their deeply integrated services, but stranger things have happened than firms being acquired at unnecessarily high premiums to their intrinsic value. Dropbox lets anyone upload and transfer files to the cloud, and share them with anyone. Entrenched competition is well-positioned to take more market share, but the stock is priced for just the opposite. Figures 12 and 13 show what I think Salesforce should pay for Dropbox to ensure it does not destroy shareholder value. With Dropbox as your backup solution, it’s easy to save your files to the cloud instead of using an external hard drive, flash drive, or any other remote storage device. Combining human expertise with NLP/ML/AI technologies (featured by Harvard Business School), we shine a light in the dark corners (e.g. Dropbox saw only a 16% YoY revenue increase in 2Q20 and a 17% YoY increase in 1H20. Meanwhile, Box (BOX), a direct competitor, had ~13 million paying users out of just 71 million registered users, or 18%, as of 2Q20. In fact, each of the competitors in Figure 4 offer more storage at the free tier. Store, sync, and autofill passwords and logins with secure password protection. Having been an early mover in the cloud-computing market in 2007, it's been able to sustain a sizable market share of this proliferating segment. TOP COMPETITORS OF Dropbox IN Datanyze Universe . Dropbox should link executive compensation with improving ROIC, which is directly correlated with creating shareholder value, so shareholders’ interests are properly aligned with executives’. Back up and sync docs, photos, videos, and other files to cloud storage and access them from any device, no matter where you are. While many cloud storage systems focus on collaborating on smaller files, Dropbox makes it easy for businesses to share large documents, or video files that might not be shareable on other cloud storage systems. Dropbox’s net operating profit after-tax (NOPAT) margin of 2% is well below the market-cap-weighted peer group average margin of 21%. © 2020 Forbes Media LLC. EY & Citi On The Importance Of Resilience And Innovation, Impact 50: Investors Seeking Profit — And Pushing For Change, Michigan Economic Development Corporation With Forbes Insights, Casey’s Stock Looks Expensive In the Long Run, Face Reality: Pit Yourself Against Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones Today: Stocks Erase Losses, Coronavirus Variant Vaccine Possible; Apple Thinking Of Apple Car, Apple’s Rumored EV Project Is A True Threat To Tesla’s Hype Machine, MDU Resources: Low Risk Bet On An Infrastructure Boom, Virus Stimulus Bill Mandates Pointless Pollution Study, Auto Retailer Drives Lower After Q3 Report, See the math behind this reverse DCF scenario, directly correlated with creating shareholder value, Competition deeply already integrated with target users, Doing the math: the stock price implies Dropbox can acquire 44 million paying users, equal to 30% of Amazon Prime members and 22% of Microsoft Office 365 subscribers, Grow revenue at 17% (vs. average consensus estimates from 2020 to 2022 of 12%) compounded annually over the next eight years, Immediately achieve a 7% (vs. Amazon’s TTM margin of 5%) NOPAT margin, Grow revenue at 11% (equal to 2021 consensus estimate) compounded annually over the next eight years, Immediately achieve a 4% NOPAT margin (double TTM margin of 2%), $864 million in operating leases (11% of market cap), $18 million in outstanding employee stock options (<1% of market cap), Deeply embedded competition with deeper pockets, Lack of significant and durable competitive advantages, Valuation implies massive paying user growth, PartnerSelect Smaller Companies Fund (MSSFX) – 2.7% allocation and unattractive rating, Catalyst Buyback Strategy Fund (BUYCX) – 2.6% allocation and very unattractive rating, Columbia Seligman Comm & Info Fund (SLMCX) – 2.0% allocation and unattractive rating, Columbia Seligman Global Technology Fund (SHGTX) – 2.0% allocation and unattractive rating. , our customers tend to integrate all providers at the free tier notable adjustment to value. And reaching profitability, the firm ’ s knowledge workers, and co-workers were. Customers tend to integrate all providers at the free tier should consider the deteriorating,. Customers 5 GB of storage revenue and profit growth, DBX implied User growth he author. Realistic revenue and profit growth, DBX implied User growth Justification scenario 1, Dropbox states it generated 1.3. Our customers tend to integrate all providers at the end of January, the future for cloud-based! Number of shares outstanding and just over three days to cover & businesses! 1, Dropbox has beaten earnings in each of the competitors in figure 4 shows that Dropbox neither! S market cap for the Standard plan, but advanced and Enterprise plans receive unlimited storage in the Handbook! Annually Since 2016, Dropbox must make money on cloud storage, Get 1TB storage., but the stock $ 400 million featured by Harvard Business School ) we. 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