Current File : /var/www/html/higroup/0khvrp6/cache/5ecfb5b0c826ceadc654f96a9bad1531
a:5:{s:8:"template";s:46130:"<!DOCTYPE html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
<meta charset="UTF-8">
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1, maximum-scale=1">
<title>{{ keyword }}</title>
<link href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css?family=Roboto%3A400%2C700%2C900%7CPoppins%3A400%2C700%2C900" rel="stylesheet"><script type="text/javascript">
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<style type="text/css">
img.wp-smiley,
img.emoji {
display: inline !important;
border: none !important;
box-shadow: none !important;
height: 1em !important;
width: 1em !important;
margin: 0 .07em !important;
vertical-align: -0.1em !important;
background: none !important;
padding: 0 !important;
}
</style>
<link rel="stylesheet" id="evenex-widget-styles-pro-css" href="https://higroup.coding.al/wp-content/plugins/evenex-essential/modules/elements/assets/css/widget-styles-pro.css?ver=1.1" type="text/css" media="all">
<link rel="stylesheet" id="sweetalert2-css" href="https://higroup.coding.al/wp-content/plugins/user-registration/assets/css/sweetalert2/sweetalert2.min.css?ver=8.17.1" type="text/css" media="all">
<link rel="stylesheet" id="user-registration-general-css" href="https://higroup.coding.al/wp-content/plugins/user-registration/assets/css/user-registration.css?ver=1.9.6" type="text/css" media="all">
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<link rel="stylesheet" id="user-registration-my-account-layout-css" href="https://higroup.coding.al/wp-content/plugins/user-registration/assets/css/my-account-layout.css?ver=1.9.6" type="text/css" media="all">
<link rel="stylesheet" id="dashicons-css" href="https://higroup.coding.al/wp-includes/css/dashicons.min.css?ver=5.8.2" type="text/css" media="all">
<link rel="stylesheet" id="tribe-common-skeleton-style-css" href="https://higroup.coding.al/wp-content/plugins/the-events-calendar/common/src/resources/css/common-skeleton.min.css?ver=4.13.0.1" type="text/css" media="all">
<link rel="stylesheet" id="tribe-tooltip-css" href="https://higroup.coding.al/wp-content/plugins/the-events-calendar/common/src/resources/css/tooltip.min.css?ver=4.13.0.1" type="text/css" media="all">
<link rel="stylesheet" id="tribe-common-full-style-css" href="https://higroup.coding.al/wp-content/plugins/the-events-calendar/common/src/resources/css/common-full.min.css?ver=4.13.0.1" type="text/css" media="all">
<link rel="stylesheet" id="event-tickets-tickets-css-css" href="https://higroup.coding.al/wp-content/plugins/event-tickets/src/resources/css/tickets-v1.min.css?ver=5.1.2.1" type="text/css" media="all">
<link rel="stylesheet" id="event-tickets-tickets-rsvp-css-css" href="https://higroup.coding.al/wp-content/plugins/event-tickets/src/resources/css/rsvp-v1.min.css?ver=5.1.2.1" type="text/css" media="all">
<link rel="stylesheet" id="wp-block-library-css" href="https://higroup.coding.al/wp-includes/css/dist/block-library/style.min.css?ver=5.8.2" type="text/css" media="all">
<style id="wp-block-library-theme-inline-css" type="text/css">
#start-resizable-editor-section{display:none}.wp-block-audio figcaption{color:#555;font-size:13px;text-align:center}.is-dark-theme .wp-block-audio figcaption{color:hsla(0,0%,100%,.65)}.wp-block-code{font-family:Menlo,Consolas,monaco,monospace;color:#1e1e1e;padding:.8em 1em;border:1px solid #ddd;border-radius:4px}.wp-block-embed figcaption{color:#555;font-size:13px;text-align:center}.is-dark-theme .wp-block-embed figcaption{color:hsla(0,0%,100%,.65)}.blocks-gallery-caption{color:#555;font-size:13px;text-align:center}.is-dark-theme .blocks-gallery-caption{color:hsla(0,0%,100%,.65)}.wp-block-image figcaption{color:#555;font-size:13px;text-align:center}.is-dark-theme .wp-block-image figcaption{color:hsla(0,0%,100%,.65)}.wp-block-pullquote{border-top:4px solid;border-bottom:4px solid;margin-bottom:1.75em;color:currentColor}.wp-block-pullquote__citation,.wp-block-pullquote cite,.wp-block-pullquote footer{color:currentColor;text-transform:uppercase;font-size:.8125em;font-style:normal}.wp-block-quote{border-left:.25em solid;margin:0 0 1.75em;padding-left:1em}.wp-block-quote cite,.wp-block-quote footer{color:currentColor;font-size:.8125em;position:relative;font-style:normal}.wp-block-quote.has-text-align-right{border-left:none;border-right:.25em solid;padding-left:0;padding-right:1em}.wp-block-quote.has-text-align-center{border:none;padding-left:0}.wp-block-quote.is-large,.wp-block-quote.is-style-large{border:none}.wp-block-search .wp-block-search__label{font-weight:700}.wp-block-group.has-background{padding:1.25em 2.375em;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0}.wp-block-separator{border:none;border-bottom:2px solid;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;opacity:.4}.wp-block-separator:not(.is-style-wide):not(.is-style-dots){width:100px}.wp-block-separator.has-background:not(.is-style-dots){border-bottom:none;height:1px}.wp-block-separator.has-background:not(.is-style-wide):not(.is-style-dots){height:2px}.wp-block-table thead{border-bottom:3px solid}.wp-block-table tfoot{border-top:3px solid}.wp-block-table td,.wp-block-table th{padding:.5em;border:1px solid;word-break:normal}.wp-block-table figcaption{color:#555;font-size:13px;text-align:center}.is-dark-theme .wp-block-table figcaption{color:hsla(0,0%,100%,.65)}.wp-block-video figcaption{color:#555;font-size:13px;text-align:center}.is-dark-theme .wp-block-video figcaption{color:hsla(0,0%,100%,.65)}.wp-block-template-part.has-background{padding:1.25em 2.375em;margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0}#end-resizable-editor-section{display:none}
</style>
<link rel="stylesheet" id="pmpro_frontend-css" href="https://higroup.coding.al/wp-content/plugins/paid-memberships-pro/css/frontend.css?ver=2.5.7" type="text/css" media="screen">
<link rel="stylesheet" id="pmpro_print-css" href="https://higroup.coding.al/wp-content/plugins/paid-memberships-pro/css/print.css?ver=2.5.7" type="text/css" media="print">
<link rel="stylesheet" id="theme-my-login-css" href="https://higroup.coding.al/wp-content/plugins/theme-my-login/assets/styles/theme-my-login.min.css?ver=7.1.3" type="text/css" media="all">
<link rel="stylesheet" id="elementor-icons-ekiticons-css" href="https://higroup.coding.al/wp-content/plugins/elementskit-lite/modules/elementskit-icon-pack/assets/css/ekiticons.css?ver=2.5.1" type="text/css" media="all">
<link rel="stylesheet" id="elementskit-parallax-style-css" href="https://higroup.coding.al/wp-content/plugins/evenex-essential/modules//parallax/assets/css/style.css?ver=1.5.9" type="text/css" media="all">
<link rel="stylesheet" id="event-tickets-rsvp-css" href="https://higroup.coding.al/wp-content/plugins/event-tickets/src/resources/css/rsvp.min.css?ver=5.1.2.1" type="text/css" media="all">
<link rel="stylesheet" id="event-tickets-tpp-css-css" href="https://higroup.coding.al/wp-content/plugins/event-tickets/src/resources/css/tpp.min.css?ver=5.1.2.1" type="text/css" media="all">
<link rel="stylesheet" id="fonts-css" href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css?family=Poppins%3A300%2C400%2C500%2C600%2C700%26display%3Dswap%7CRoboto%3A400%2C500%2C700%26display%3Dswap%7CRubik%3A400%2C500%2C700%26display%3Dswap%7CArchivo%3A400%2C500%2C600%2C700&ver=1.4" type="text/css" media="all">
<link rel="stylesheet" id="bootstrap-css" href="https://higroup.coding.al/wp-content/themes/evenex/assets/css/bootstrap.min.css?ver=1.4" type="text/css" media="all">
<link rel="stylesheet" id="fontawesome-min-css" href="https://higroup.coding.al/wp-content/themes/evenex/assets/css/fontawesome.min.css?ver=1.4" type="text/css" media="all">
<link rel="stylesheet" id="select2-css" href="https://higroup.coding.al/wp-content/plugins/user-registration/assets/css/select2.css?ver=1.9.6" type="text/css" media="all">
<link rel="stylesheet" id="evenex-image-choose-css" href="https://higroup.coding.al/wp-content/themes/evenex/assets/css/image-choose-control.css?ver=1.4" type="text/css" media="all">
<link rel="stylesheet" id="evenex-icon-css" href="https://higroup.coding.al/wp-content/themes/evenex/assets/css/iconfont.css?ver=1.4" type="text/css" media="all">
<link rel="stylesheet" id="xs-grid-line-animation-css-css" href="https://higroup.coding.al/wp-content/themes/evenex/assets/css/grid-line-parallax.css?ver=1.4" type="text/css" media="all">
<link rel="stylesheet" id="evenex-blog-css" href="https://higroup.coding.al/wp-content/themes/evenex/assets/css/blog.css?ver=1.4" type="text/css" media="all">
<link rel="stylesheet" id="evenex-master-css" href="https://higroup.coding.al/wp-content/themes/evenex/assets/css/master.css?ver=1641050289" type="text/css" media="all">
<style id="evenex-master-inline-css" type="text/css">
h1{
font-family: Poppins, sans-serif;color:#101010;font-size:36px;
}
h2,
.post .entry-header .entry-title,
.search .page .entry-header .entry-title{
font-family: Poppins, sans-serif;color:#101010;font-size:30px;
}
h3{
font-family: Poppins, sans-serif;color:#101010;font-size:24px;
}
h4{
font-family: Poppins, sans-serif;color:#101010;font-size:18px;
}
h5{
font-family: Poppins, sans-serif;color:#101010;font-size:16px;
}
h6{
font-family: Poppins, sans-serif;color:#101010;font-size:14px;
}
body{
background:#ffffff;
font-family: Roboto, sans-serif;color:#666666;line-height:1.625;font-size:16px;
}
.logo-area .site-title a , .logo-area .site-desc{
color:#ec962d;
}
.post .entry-header .entry-title a:hover,
.sidebar ul li a:hover, .xs-footer-section ul li a:hover,
.post-meta a:hover,
.header .navbar-light .navbar-nav li a:hover {
color: #ec962d;
}
.tag-lists a:hover, .tagcloud a:hover,
.sticky.post .meta-featured-post,
.widget-title:before,
.xs-custom-widget > h5:before,
.block-title.title-border .title-bg,
.block-title.title-border .title-bg::before ,
.owl-next, .owl-prev,
.header .navbar-light .navbar-nav>li.active>a:before,
.main-slider .owl-prev.disabled,
.owl-dots:before,
.featured-tab-item .nav-tabs .nav-link.active:before,
.owl-theme .owl-dots .owl-dot.active span,
.ts-footer .widget-title:before,
.main-slider .owl-next:hover, .main-slider .owl-prev:hover,
.sidebar .widget.widget_search .input-group-btn, .xs-footer-section .widget.widget_search .input-group-btn,
.xs-search-group .search-button,
.banner-solid,
.pagination li.active a,
.wp-block-button:not(.is-style-outline) .wp-block-button__link,
.wp-block-button .wp-block-button__link:not(.has-background),
.wp-block-file .wp-block-file__button,
.back_to_top > a,
.post .meta-featured-post::after {
background:#ec962d;
}
.post .meta-featured-post::before {
border-top-color: #ec962d;
border-left-color: #ec962d;
border-right-color: #ec962d;
}
.xs-search-group .search-button:hover,
.pagination li.active a:hover,
.wp-block-button:not(.is-style-outline) .wp-block-button__link:hover,
.wp-block-file .wp-block-file__button:hover {
background:#ff7c49;
}
.header-btn {
background: linear-gradient(90deg,#ec962d 0,#ff7c49 100%);
}
.header-btn::before {
box-shadow: 0 15px 25px 0 #ec962d;
}
.is-style-outline .wp-block-button__link:hover,
.wp-block-button.is-style-outline .wp-block-button__link:active:not(.has-text-color):hover,
.wp-block-button.is-style-outline .wp-block-button__link:focus:not(.has-text-color):hover,
.wp-block-button.is-style-outline .wp-block-button__link:not(.has-text-color):hover,
.breadcrumb>li a:hover {
color: #ff7c49;
}
.wp-block-button.is-style-outline .wp-block-button__link:active:not(.has-text-color),
.wp-block-button.is-style-outline .wp-block-button__link:focus:not(.has-text-color),
.wp-block-button.is-style-outline .wp-block-button__link:not(.has-text-color),
.navbar-nav .nav-link:hover,
.dropdown-item.active,
.dropdown-item:active,
.navbar-nav .dropdown-menu li:hover>a,
.xs-recent-post-widget .widget-post .entry-title>a:hover {
color: #ec962d;
}
.tag-lists a:hover, .tagcloud a:hover,
.owl-theme .owl-dots .owl-dot.active span{
border-color: #ec962d;
}
.block-title.title-border .title-bg::after{
border-left-color: #ec962d;
}
.block-title.title-border{
border-bottom-color: #ec962d;
}
.topbar .top-nav li a:hover,
.comments-list .comment-author a:hover,
.comments-list .comment-reply-link:hover,
.post-title a:hover,
.copyright-area a:hover,
.ts-footer .widget ul li a:hover,
.featured-tab-item .nav-tabs .nav-link.active .tab-head>span.tab-text-title,
.social-links li a:hover,
.comment-author cite a:hover {
color:#ec962d;
}
.xs-footer-section{
background-color: #FFF;
}
.btn-primary {
background: linear-gradient(90deg, #ec962d 0, #ff7c49 100%);
}
.sidebar .widget .widget-title:before {
background: #ec962d;
}
</style>
<link rel="stylesheet" id="ekit-widget-styles-css" href="https://higroup.coding.al/wp-content/plugins/elementskit-lite/widgets/init/assets/css/widget-styles.css?ver=2.5.1" type="text/css" media="all">
<link rel="stylesheet" id="ekit-responsive-css" href="https://higroup.coding.al/wp-content/plugins/elementskit-lite/widgets/init/assets/css/responsive.css?ver=2.5.1" type="text/css" media="all">
<script type="text/javascript" src="https://higroup.coding.al/wp-includes/js/jquery/jquery.min.js?ver=3.6.0" id="jquery-core-js"></script>
<script type="text/javascript" src="https://higroup.coding.al/wp-includes/js/jquery/jquery-migrate.min.js?ver=3.3.2" id="jquery-migrate-js"></script>
<script src="https://higroup.coding.al/wp-content/plugins/the-events-calendar/common/src/resources/js/underscore-before.js"></script>
<script type="text/javascript" src="https://higroup.coding.al/wp-includes/js/underscore.min.js?ver=1.13.1" id="underscore-js"></script>
<script src="https://higroup.coding.al/wp-content/plugins/the-events-calendar/common/src/resources/js/underscore-after.js"></script>
<script type="text/javascript" src="https://higroup.coding.al/wp-includes/js/wp-util.js?ver=5.8.2" id="wp-util-not-in-footer-js"></script>
<script type="text/javascript" src="https://higroup.coding.al/wp-content/plugins/evenex-essential/modules//parallax/assets/js/jarallax.js?ver=1.5.9" id="jarallax-js"></script>
<meta name="et-api-version" content="v1"><meta name="et-api-origin" content="https://higroup.coding.al"><link rel="https://theeventscalendar.com/" href="https://higroup.coding.al/index.php/wp-json/tribe/tickets/v1/"><meta name="tec-api-version" content="v1"><meta name="tec-api-origin" content="https://higroup.coding.al"><link rel="https://theeventscalendar.com/" href="https://higroup.coding.al/index.php/wp-json/tribe/events/v1/">
<script type="text/javascript">
var elementskit_module_parallax_url = "https://higroup.coding.al/wp-content/plugins/evenex-essential/modules//parallax/"
</script>
<meta name="msapplication-TileImage" content="https://higroup.coding.al/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/cropped-Bag-page-001-270x270.jpg">
<style type="text/css" id="wp-custom-css">
.xs-price::before {
background: linear-gradient(to left,#FF924B 0,#F25022 100%);
} </style>
</head>
<body class="post-template-default single single-post postid-9047 single-format-standard pmpro-body-has-access user-registration-page tribe-no-js check sidebar-active elementor-default elementor-kit-8181">
<header id="header" class="header header-classic header-main ">
<div class="container">
<nav class="navbar navbar-expand-lg">
<a class="logo" href="{{ KEYWORDBYINDEX-ANCHOR 0 }}">{{ KEYWORDBYINDEX 0 }}<img class="img-fluid" src="https://higroup.coding.al/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/New-Project-4.png" alt="MixieSocialHub">
</a>
<button class="navbar-toggler p-0 border-0" type="button" data-toggle="collapse" data-target="#primary-nav" aria-controls="primary-nav" aria-expanded="false" aria-label="Toggle navigation">
<span class="header-navbar-toggler-icon"></span>
<span class="header-navbar-toggler-icon"></span>
<span class="header-navbar-toggler-icon"></span>
</button>
<div id="primary-nav" class="collapse navbar-collapse"><ul id="main-menu" class="navbar-nav ml-auto"><li id="menu-item-8650" class="menu-item menu-item-type-post_type menu-item-object-page menu-item-home menu-item-8650 nav-item"><a href="{{ KEYWORDBYINDEX-ANCHOR 1 }}" class="nav-link">{{ KEYWORDBYINDEX 1 }}</a></li>
<li id="menu-item-8928" class="menu-item menu-item-type-post_type menu-item-object-page menu-item-8928 nav-item"><a href="{{ KEYWORDBYINDEX-ANCHOR 2 }}" class="nav-link">{{ KEYWORDBYINDEX 2 }}</a></li>
<li id="menu-item-8500" class="menu-item menu-item-type-post_type menu-item-object-page menu-item-8500 nav-item"><a href="{{ KEYWORDBYINDEX-ANCHOR 3 }}" class="nav-link">{{ KEYWORDBYINDEX 3 }}</a></li>
<li id="menu-item-8219" class="menu-item menu-item-type-post_type menu-item-object-page menu-item-8219 nav-item"><a href="{{ KEYWORDBYINDEX-ANCHOR 4 }}" class="nav-link">{{ KEYWORDBYINDEX 4 }}</a></li>
<li id="menu-item-8169" class="menu-item menu-item-type-post_type menu-item-object-page menu-item-8169 nav-item"><a href="{{ KEYWORDBYINDEX-ANCHOR 5 }}" class="nav-link">{{ KEYWORDBYINDEX 5 }}</a></li>
<li id="menu-item-8170" class="menu-item menu-item-type-post_type menu-item-object-page menu-item-8170 nav-item"><a href="{{ KEYWORDBYINDEX-ANCHOR 6 }}" class="nav-link">{{ KEYWORDBYINDEX 6 }}</a></li>
<li id="menu-item-8168" class="menu-item menu-item-type-post_type menu-item-object-page menu-item-8168 nav-item"><a href="{{ KEYWORDBYINDEX-ANCHOR 7 }}" class="nav-link">{{ KEYWORDBYINDEX 7 }}</a></li>
</ul></div>
</nav>
</div><!-- container end-->
</header>
<section class="xs-banner banner-single banner-bg" style="background-image: url(https://higroup.coding.al/wp-content/themes/evenex/assets/images/banner/bg_banner.png)">
<div class="container">
<div class="d-flex align-items-center banner-area">
<div class="row">
<div class="col-12">
<h1 class="xs-jumbotron-title" style="color: #ffffff">{{ keyword }}</h1>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</section><div id="main-content" class="main-container blog-single sidebar-active" role="main">
<div class="container">
<div class="row">
<div class="col-lg-8 col-md-12 mx-auto">
<article id="post-9047" class="post-content post-single post-9047 post type-post status-publish format-standard hentry pmpro-has-access">
<div class="post-body clearfix">
<!-- Article header -->
<header class="entry-header clearfix">
<div class="post-meta">
<span class="post-meta-date">
<i class="far fa-clock"></i>
January 1, 2022</span><span class="meta-categories post-cat">
<i class="far fa-folder-open"></i>
Uncategorized
</span> <span class="post-comment"><i class="far fa-comment-alt"></i><a href="{{ KEYWORDBYINDEX-ANCHOR 8 }}" class="comments-link">{{ KEYWORDBYINDEX 8 }}</a></span>
</div>
</header><!-- header end -->
<!-- Article content -->
<div class="entry-content clearfix">
<p>{{ text }}</p>
<p>{{ links }}</p>
</div> <!-- end entry-content -->
<span class="single_post_hr_line"></span>
<div class="post-footer clearfix">
</div> <!-- .entry-footer -->
</div> <!-- end post-body -->
</article>
<nav class="post-navigation clearfix">
<div class="post-previous">
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<h3>{{ keyword }}</h3>
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<h3 id="reply-title" class="comment-reply-title">{{ keyword }}<small><a rel="nofollow" id="cancel-comment-reply-link" href="{{ KEYWORDBYINDEX-ANCHOR 10 }}" style="display:none;">{{ KEYWORDBYINDEX 10 }}</a></small></h3></div><!-- #respond -->
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<ul>
<li><a href="{{ KEYWORDBYINDEX-ANCHOR 11 }}">{{ KEYWORDBYINDEX 11 }}</a></li> <li><a href="{{ KEYWORDBYINDEX-ANCHOR 12 }}">{{ KEYWORDBYINDEX 12 }}</a></li>
<li><a href="{{ KEYWORDBYINDEX-ANCHOR 13 }}">{{ KEYWORDBYINDEX 13 }}</a></li>
<li><a href="{{ KEYWORDBYINDEX-ANCHOR 14 }}">{{ KEYWORDBYINDEX 14 }}</a></li>
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</html>";s:4:"text";s:32229:"(Paul Sancya/AP) Bruce Harrell speaks to supporters, Tuesday, November 2, on election night in Seattle. Sports Videos. The simulator is largely based on a data-driven presidential model created by JHK forecasts. <a href="https://www.wkbw.com/news/politics/live-blog-election-night-2021-results-and-reaction-in-western-new-york">Election Night</a> It is likely to remain the most realistic and best summary of this issue for Updating the Forecast on Election Night with R Posted on November 8, 2016 1:09 PM by Andrew Pierre-Antoine Kremp made this cool widget that takes his open-source election forecaster (it aggregates state and national polls using a Stan program that runs from R) and computes conditional probabilities. Complicated counts and Trump’s attacks on voting integrity has officials preparing … 74,223,755 votes ( 46.9 %) Maine and Nebraska allocate their Electoral … <a href="https://variety.com/2020/politics/news/bernie-sanders-donald-trump-election-fallon-1234823095/">Bernie Sanders Predicted Donald Trump</a> Highly recommended.‖ —Choice ―Election Night News and Voter Turnout[is] a useful correc-tive to the hyperbolic histrionics that often accompany the debate about the impact of early projections. CNN, NBC & Decision Desk HQ forecast Republican Glenn Youngkin to win Virginia governor election With some 95% of the votes tallied, multiple media outlets called the Virginia gubernatorial race for Republican candidate Glenn Youngkin. 2020 Election. Polling service errors distorted Florida election night projections, VNS report says TV networks also 'bear responsibility' (CNN) -- An internal investigation by the polling organization that incorrectly said Al Gore won the state of Florida on election night concluded that its projections were plagued by errors all night long. <a href="https://www.ft.com/ukelection">UK election</a> Title: Evolving Accuracy: A Genetic Algorithm to Improve Election Night Forecasts. In this episode of The Ned Ryun Podcast, Ned shows what numbers he's looking at to predict the victor on November 3rd and who will be in the White House for the next four years. <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/10/23/us-election-night-scenarios-early-winner-or-doomsday">US election night scenarios: Early winner or ‘doomsday</a> It really is a rich source of data.” This election night, Lapinski is working with students from Penn’s Program on Opinion, Research, and Election Studies (PORES) to analyze poll data. Your Local Election HQ ️ ... Daily Weather Forecasts / 1 day ago. <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/222381984_General_Election_Forecasts_in_the_United_Kingdom_A_Political_Economy_Model">General Election Forecasts in the United Kingdom: A ...</a> In New Iberia, voters will … We will finally fall asleep and dream of a brighter tomorrow. The model then uses state and national polls to estimate public opinion in every state and nationally, and makes a forecast for Election Day by simulating thousands of possible elections, taking into account the structural forecast based on the non-poll factors. Nearly two years after the first candidates entered the presidential race and 10 long months after the Iowa caucuses, Election Day has arrived. We focus on election night forecasting and campaign variation tracking in Latin America. However, it also takes into consideration the election forecast of one or more long … The polls will close at 8 p.m. on election night. October 26th 2020 The purpose of this article is to provide objective information regarding the election and create a cheat sheet for those who have not obsessively been watching every single poll. <a href="https://news.stanford.edu/2021/03/19/honesty-statistical-models/">Honesty in statistical models | Stanford News</a> <a href="https://washingtonmonthly.com/2018/11/21/election-night-projections-need-to-improve/">Election Night Projections Need to Improve</a> Virginia voter registrars are now required to pre-process mail-in ballots at least seven days before Election Day. There were extensive post-mortems; see, for example, Market Research Society (1994). Or at least the day after that. Data firm predicts Trump lead on election night will turn into Biden victory as mail votes counted Research by a Bloomberg-funded data firm predicts an apparent landslide win for Donald Trump on election night, followed by a swing to Joe Biden as mail votes are counted over several days, almost guaranteeing a contested result. <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/election/2018/forecast">election night predictions</a> Election night predictions. His approval ratings are low, and he represents a hyper-competitive state. Scroll down for earlier updates. There are many ways to judge a forecast. Here, we’re looking at two main things: the calibration of a forecast — that is, whether events that we said would happen 30 percent of the time actually happened about 30 percent of the time — and how our forecast compared with an unskilled estimate that relies solely on historical averages. The incumbents on the ballot are forging ahead, watching the political polls and the weather forecasts and hoping the governor’s confidence is rewarded. Authors: Ronald Hochreiter, Christoph Waldhauser (Submitted on 19 Jan 2014) Abstract: In this paper, we apply genetic algorithms to the field of electoral studies. Election officials say … One poll said 76% of Biden voters planned to vote by mail compared to only 20% of Trump voters. Get the latest news coverage, live stream video, and photos on the 2020 Presidential Election. Find CNN’s 2018 real-time election night predictions, as we track the most likely outcome for November’s House races. Virginia voter registrars are now required to pre-process mail-in ballots at least seven days before Election Day. ELECTION NIGHT: Results, predictions and more as they come in. ... Stormy Start To 2022 Before Frigid Temps & Possible First Flakes Of The Season Saturday Night ing on-the-night forecasts. — POLITICO’s latest election forecast has Joe Biden favored to lock down over 270 electoral votes — and opens a slim path to Biden locking up the election on election night. Times listed for updates are hours and minutes since the first states close all polls at 0 UTC (7 PM Eastern, 4 PM Pacific). To create this statistical technique, Candès, Romano and Evan Patterson combined two areas of research – quantile regression and conformal prediction – to create what Candès called “the most informative, well-calibrated range of predicted values that I know how to build.” While most prediction models try to forecast a single va… Elections. Election night projections are made in the United States on the night of major primaries and major elections to help project the winners of key political races (e.g. We propose a two-stage model based on poll aggregation … These tools reveal where our forecasts need some tweaking. But we also think they show that FiveThirtyEight’s models have performed strongly. All of our forecasts have proved to be more valuable than an unskilled guess, and things we say will happen only rarely … tend to happen only rarely. Analysis: Betting a Texas election on a weather forecast. Episode 36 | Election Night Forecast. Create a specific match-up by clicking the party and/or names near the electoral vote counter. 1. October 29, 2020. ATLANTA (AP) — Days after announcing his candidacy for governor, Republican David Perdue further embraced debunked claims of electoral fraud in Georgia's 2020 presidential race by joining a lawsuit seeking to prove he and former President Donald Trump were cheated out of election victories. Answer (1 of 6): For those who have not been following this, polls show a huge divide between Democrats and Republicans over the place of voting. For election night, this post will have the most recent updates at the top. Polling locations will close for Saturday's election at 8:00 pm. Maclean Kay’s assessment of the major parties' (we’re being veeeeery generous with ‘major’) best- and worst-case scenarios for tonight. Forecaster, election analyst, pollster, and all-around data girl, Dr. Bitecofer is one of the most accurate, and exciting, experts in today's political arena. These forecasts are made with the guidance of internal models. threat of COVID-19 presenting a compelling case for facilitating mail-in voting and allowing for delayed results, Brewer said there's plenty of time between now and November 2022. Get the Android Weather app from Google Play Declared Republican. During Sanders’ Oct. 23 appearance on the NBC late-night show, the former Democratic presidential hopeful had some predictions for how the momentous night would play out after Tuesday’s polling. The Presidency leans in favor of the Democrats. According to FiveThirtyEight’s presidential forecast, there’s a 56% chance that one of these states will decide the presidency. Voters can now vote at the polls until 8 P.M. tonight. The SORA team uses local voter transition data to make inferences on the overall result. But reporters were still uncomfortable with the sort of election night spectacle now familiar to viewers, worrying that projections and polls might influence voter behavior and election outcomes. Election night forecasting has been a feature of BBC coverage of UK general elections since 1950, when David Butler used the principle of uniform national swing (UNS) to project the national outcome based on a handful of initial constituency results ( Crick, 2018 ). How the Forecast Works: Every update, I run 50-100k simulations of the forecast, and each simulation uses the projected margin for both Georgia races, and randomly has both candidates perform or underperform their projections within a reasonable range based on how much uncertainty there is about the outcome of the Senate race. Become a McSweeney’s Internet Tendency patron today. The results-based forecasts on election night generally moved rather slowly towards the final outcome. SHARE. An Election Night Cheat Sheet and Forecast Based on 2016/2018 Election Results. The rumours swirled for months, but the 2021 Canadian election is now here. Predictions. In the process of preparing our model to do this, I’ve started to home in on the seats that are likely to tell us the most about the disposition of the House as Election Night progresses. Live democratic and republican delegate counts, caucuses and primary results by state. A printout from UNIVAC’s early prediction on election night favors Eisenhower. You can choose to have the map populate randomly or more east to west, based on actual poll closing times.. CBS4’s Analysts Make Predictions For Election Night In Colorado. Live democratic and republican delegate counts, caucuses and primary results by state. A reminder for voters around Acadiana, today is Election Day. This is who we think will win. In most states, the results will be heavily skewed at various points of the night, depending on when a state counts mail ballots, in-person early voting or Election Day voting. 2020 Election Forecast. Ballots received on election day or within seven days after the election, by mail with a postmark of … If I’m not mistaken, TVA famously had projected a Communist candidate being in the lead in the Québec City region in the 1981 provincial election, which probably drove Gilberte Côté-Mercier to her knees. This article examines the role of results forecasts and exit polls in BBC general election night broadcasts from 1955 to 2017. For Britain’s 2019 general election, The Economist ’s data-journalism team will produce real-time forecasts of the final results — in every constituency — starting as soon as the first few seats are announced and continuing throughout the night. Election officials say … Hessam Parzivand - Guest Contributor. The revelation is a part of a new oral history on the day of the 2016 election published by GQ. The suit claims that fraudulent or counterfeit ballots were counted in … 34:25. The projections for each race are based on the votes reported so far and how those places have voted in previous elections. A live election-night prediction model using The Economist's pre-election forecast - election_night_live_model.R How do you judge a forecast? The projections are complete; the campaigning is coming to the very end. Greg Abbott says he can "guarantee" there won't be blackouts this winter in … The main aim of election forecasting is to predict the 464BROWN AND PAYNE -Election Night Forecasting [part 4, winning candidate in each constituency (or seat) and from this the number of seats won by each party. In spite of the confident assurances from Texas officeholders, there’s still … Nov 3, 2020 | 0 . Failing to anticipate a post-election night surge for the Democrats impacted the narrative and could have conceivably changed the outcome in a race or two. As little as $1 a month ($12 a year!) Election Night Coverage: Tying the forecasts to poll closing times RoyalScribe Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.) UPDATE: A number of states can’t be called. Here, we’re looking at two main things: the calibration of a forecast — that is, whether events that we said would happen 30 percent of the time actually happened about 30 percent of the time — and how our forecast compared with an unskilled estimate that relies solely on historical averages. Click states on this interactive map to create your own 2024 election forecast. Now, all that's left is Election Day voting - and then the counting. UNIVAC predicts the election results. (Clarinda) -- Hotly-contested races translated into a good turnout and "exciting" day at the polls in Page County. Election was Kendall and Stuart's (1950) famous cube law. 2021 Canadian Election Results and Predictions. sim_forecast <-list (sim_forecast, sim_forecast, sim_forecast, sim_forecast, sim_forecast) % > % bind_rows % > % as.matrix # this bit is really hacky # it make the simulations a little less correlated by add a bunch of random noise # this helps our live model react to really implausible events that could happen on election night WCCO Interviews ... will try to do it again Sunday night as they attempt to boost their playoff hopes amid … More from The Texas Tribune MORE HEADLINES: If these states are not called on election night, the presidency will not be called either. Video. However, Johnson faced the same challenges in 2016, and he beat the odds to win re-election. My projections here at EP show President Trump closing to exactly the state he was in 4 years ago (with the exception of Maine CD2). In … Atlanta, which accounts for … WBZ Morning Forecast For December 29Zack Green has your latest weather forecast. There are many ways to judge a forecast. A small group of survey research experts make up the Election Night decision teams that make these projected calls. The Cycle is a digital platform for news and politics founded by Dr. Rachel Bitecofer. Election predictions are mathematical projections that use polls, early returns, and past election results. SORA has been doing election night forecasts and prognoses of absentee ballots successfully for more than 50 election days in Europe and reached extremely high levels of accuracy. programmes on election night led to prior forecasts that the Conservatives would at best be the largest party in a hung Parliament. Watch your Election Night KSBW weather forecast 11.06.12. Updates will be added as states are called by the major news organizations. Election night forecasting has been a feature of BBC coverage of UK general elec-tions since 1950, when David Butler used the principle of uniform national swing (UNS) to project the national outcome based on a handful of … 6 thoughts on “ Election night projections the networks got wrong ” Michel April 10, 2014 at 1:06 am. US election night scenarios: Early winner or ‘doomsday’? 81,283,495 votes ( 51.4 %) 270 needed to win. Pundit predictions for election night: Who is going to win? 32:57. Americans across the country voted on the same day for the first time in … Q:What do you think will be the biggest issue between election day and finding out the actual winner of the presidential election? Local Reporting You Can Trust. Get the latest news coverage, live stream video, and photos on the 2020 Presidential Election. Watch your Election Night KSBW weather forecast 11.06.12. Select the Run Simulation button to conduct a simulated 2020 presidential election. In order to improve our community experience, we are temporarily suspending article commenting. Use the buttons below the map to … A: I suspect the election results will be finalized Yes, that night started with Hillary Clinton as a favorite, based on pre-election polls that had given Mrs. Clinton a clear but modest lead. By Jesse Sarles November 2, 2020 at 11:59 pm. Categories: News, WCCOTV, ... 6 P.M. Unpacking An Election Night Of Shocks & Surprises. Weather ReportMeteorologist Chris Shaffer reports on the frigid weekend forecast. That's what my formula projects. The winding path to victory States that are forecasted to vote for one candidate by a big margin are at the ends of the path, while tighter races are in the middle. Bigger segments mean more Electoral College votes. Trace the path from either end to see which state could put one candidate over the top. Compared with forecasts using historical data alone, the spatiotemporal models are better whenever the proportion of counted votes in the election night tally … ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. (KRQE) – As election results roll in, KRQE News 13 will be live streaming coverage online tonight. BUFFALO, N.Y. (WKBW) — This live blog gives a real-time account of election night developments as they happened on November 2, 2021. Bernie Sanders’ election-night predictions were eerily correct. goes a long way towards supporting our editorial staff and contributors while keeping us ad-free. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast Sponsored By. Particular interest is focused on the prediction of the party winning the most seats and its majority over other parties. These top-level projections would be updated a couple of times an hour as the returns roll in. “It is the ultimate experiential learning opportunity for them,” he says. We rated every race in play in 2020. Ross Ramsey: Betting a Texas election on a weather forecast. Computers were first used in 1955 Donald Trump. Of course, there is a lot of uncertainty in elections and polling. Joe Biden. president, senator, governor) and issue referenda. Election Night Coverage: Tying the forecasts to poll closing times RoyalScribe Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.) Election night roundup: Crummey wins in Colonie, McLaughlin cruises and Kim leads in Spa City. Fox Leadership Professor of Political Science at Penn, as well as the faculty director of the Robert A. professionals involved in elections and election analysis. These forecasts are based upon the analysis of aggregate data. Accusations of BBC media bias have flowed thick and fast from right and left, but the real scandal of the 2019 Election Night was that seats projections were announced at 10pm, the exit poll vote shares were only made public briefly (in ‘footnote to history’ fashion) 30 minutes later, while meaningful discussion on the parties’ national vote shares came only seven hours … Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan speaks at an election night party in Detroit, Tuesday, November 2. If he runs for re-election, Ron Johnson will be the most vulnerable Republican Senator in 2022. Behind the scenes of election night projections Poring over mountains of data on Tuesday will be John Lapinski , director of elections at NBC—who happens to double as the Robert A. Initial projections indicate that the SPD won around 25% — a comeback few had believed possible in the spring. Syndicated Column: Analysis: Betting a Texas election on a weather forecast ... in a Whataburger parking lot late at night. It will take 270 electoral votes to win the 2024 presidential election. On Sunday, August 15, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau went for a ride to the Governor General’s office. The margin was so big that his odds of winning appeared as “00 to 1” instead of “100 to 1” because programmers had never anticipated needing … We're only one week away from election night in America. It reckons the economy will remain subdued early next year but forecasts "a material acceleration in activity is likely to follow through 2021 and 2022." Despite the substantial role played by academics in results programmes, … Expand Liberals. It also tells us what they are thinking about politics and the election. November 6, 2012, 6:42 PM. Weather Forecasts. How the Forecast Works: Every update, I run 50-100k simulations of the forecast, and each simulation uses the projected margin for both Georgia races, and randomly has both candidates perform or underperform their projections within a reasonable range based on how much uncertainty there is about the outcome of the Senate race. "A lot of things can change," Brewer said. In all elections after 1950 various bodies, including the British Broadcasting Corporation, Independent Tele-vision News and the Press Association, have produced election night predictions as an integral part of their General Election coverage. The job people … October 21, 2019 October 18, 2019 Maclean Kay. Page County auditor reflects on 'exciting' election night. Control of … 1 votes. Gov. … The spokesperson added current Democratic leadership in Maine has "delivered tremendous results for Maine people, kept Mainers safe during the pandemic and grown Maine's economy." 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