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</html>";s:4:"text";s:13555:"The second platform on our list enjoyed popularity among consumers as an easy-to-use file storage suite, although it has shifted towards the enterprise market in recent years. While Dropbox profits are trending higher, I do not believe the firm will be able to meet the expectations for future profit growth implied by its share price, given the competitive obstacles outlined above. On The Basis Of Product, The Private Cloud Storage Market Is Primarily Split Into. Dropbox has beaten earnings in each of the past ten quarters. Figure 7 shows that while the firm’s reported FCF is trending up, Dropbox’s true FCF is moving in the opposite direction. By using our services, you agree to our use of cookies, Dropbox: Cloud Storage to Backup, Sync, File Share, By purchasing this item, you are transacting with Google Payments and agreeing to the Google Payments. Figure 6: AOEPU as a Percent of ARPU Since 2016. For instance, Apple offers all of its customers 5 GB of free space through iCloud. This adjustment represents 13% of Dropbox’s market cap. In this scenario, Dropbox grows revenue by 17% compounded annually for eight years and reaches $5.6 billion in revenue in 2027, or 7.5 times more than the $737 million of revenue Box generated over the TTM. From Dropbox’s proxy statement, the compensation committee notes “annual revenue continued to be the best indicator of our successful execution of our annual operating plan.”. Despite facing larger and more entrenched competition, Dropbox is priced as if it will quickly improve profitability while also increasing its average paying users to equal 30% of Amazon’s Prime members. Below are specifics on the adjustments I make based on Robo-Analyst findings in Dropbox’s 10-Qs and 10-K: Income Statement: I made $67 million of adjustments, with a net effect of removing $9 million in non-operating expenses (1% of revenue). Dropbox’s net operating profit after-tax (NOPAT) margin of 2% is well below the market-cap-weighted peer group average margin of 21%. For instance, the firm adds back stock-based compensation, a non-cash, but very real expense that dilutes shareholder value, to its calculation of FCF. Dropbox’s invested capital turns, a measure of balance sheet efficiency, ranks third out of the six companies listed in Figure 5. I use the higher estimates in scenario two to illustrate a best-case scenario where I assume Dropbox could grow revenue faster while being integrated within Salesforce’s existing business. There are currently 20.7 million shares sold short, which equates to 5% of shares outstanding and just over three days to cover. Dropbox lets anyone upload and transfer files to the cloud, and share them with anyone. If Dropbox cannot outgrow the competition in such a favorable environment, will it ever? By dividing the implied revenue in 2027 of $5.6 billion by the firm’s 2Q20 ARPU of $126, I arrive at ~44 million implied paying users in 2027. Inferior Offering at Higher Cost Limits Growth. The Appendix details exactly how we stack up. Despite years of rapid revenue growth and reaching profitability, the future for this cloud-based storage provider is murky at best. This adjustment represented 1% of reported net assets. Consequently, these firms can offer cloud storage for free and still make plenty of money while Dropbox must make money on cloud storage. Dropbox is popular with businesses of all sizes because it is one of the best tools for transferring large files. It’s about sharing them, as well. Each of the above scenarios also assumes Dropbox is able to grow revenue, NOPAT and FCF without increasing working capital or fixed assets. To further illustrate the extraordinarily high growth expectations embedded in Dropbox’s stock price, I compare Dropbox’s implied paying users to the paying users of competitors. Additionally, Dropbox has not been nearly as efficient at converting free users to paid users. Avoid losses from using other firms’ data: “…many of the income-statement-relevant quantitative disclosures collected by NC do not appear to be easily identifiable in Compustat…” – page 13, “Core Earnings [calculated using New Constructs’ novel dataset] provides predictive power for various measures of one-year-ahead performance…that is incremental to their current-period counterparts.” – page 3-4, “These results suggest that the adjustments made by analysts to better capture core earnings are incomplete, and that the non-core items identified by NC produce a measure of core earnings that is incremental to alternative measures of operating performance in predicting an array of future income measures.”  – page 26, “An appropriate measure of accounting performance for purposes of forecasting future performance requires detailed analysis of all quantitative performance disclosures detailed in the annual report, including those reported only in the footnotes and in the MD&A.” – page 31. ... Dropbox is a file hosting service that offers cloud storage, file synchronization, personal cloud, and client software. See what HBS & MIT Sloan professors say in the paper: “…the NC dataset provides a novel opportunity to study the properties of non-operating items disclosed in 10-Ks, and to examine the extent to which the market impounds their implications.” – page 19, “Trading strategies that exploit cross-sectional differences in firms’ transitory earnings produce abnormal returns of 7-to-10% per year.” – page 1. Figure 4: Dropbox & Competitors’ Cloud-Based Storage Plans, Most of Dropbox’s Peers Are More Profitable Too. While I chose Salesforce, analysts can use just about any company to do the same analysis. EY & Citi On The Importance Of Resilience And Innovation, Impact 50: Investors Seeking Profit — And Pushing For Change, Michigan Economic Development Corporation With Forbes Insights, Casey’s Stock Looks Expensive In the Long Run, Face Reality: Pit Yourself Against Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones Today: Stocks Erase Losses, Coronavirus Variant Vaccine Possible; Apple Thinking Of Apple Car, Apple’s Rumored EV Project Is A True Threat To Tesla’s Hype Machine, MDU Resources: Low Risk Bet On An Infrastructure Boom, Virus Stimulus Bill Mandates Pointless Pollution Study, Auto Retailer Drives Lower After Q3 Report, See the math behind this reverse DCF scenario, directly correlated with creating shareholder value, Competition deeply already integrated with target users, Doing the math: the stock price implies Dropbox can acquire 44 million paying users, equal to 30% of Amazon Prime members and 22% of Microsoft Office 365 subscribers, Grow revenue at 17% (vs. average consensus estimates from 2020 to 2022 of 12%) compounded annually over the next eight years, Immediately achieve a 7% (vs. Amazon’s TTM margin of 5%) NOPAT margin, Grow revenue at 11% (equal to 2021 consensus estimate) compounded annually over the next eight years, Immediately achieve a 4% NOPAT margin (double TTM margin of 2%), $864 million in operating leases (11% of market cap), $18 million in outstanding employee stock options (<1% of market cap), Deeply embedded competition with deeper pockets, Lack of significant and durable competitive advantages, Valuation implies massive paying user growth, PartnerSelect Smaller Companies Fund (MSSFX) – 2.7% allocation and unattractive rating, Catalyst Buyback Strategy Fund (BUYCX) – 2.6% allocation and very unattractive rating, Columbia Seligman Comm & Info Fund (SLMCX) – 2.0% allocation and unattractive rating, Columbia Seligman Global Technology Fund (SHGTX) – 2.0% allocation and unattractive rating. The other players boasting a double-digit usage share were Dropbox with 17%, Amazon Cloud Drive with 15% and Google Drive with 10%. Leading media outlets regularly feature our research. Furthermore, each of these users may find Apple’s new Apple One subscription (which bundles iCloud, Music, TV, Arcade, Fitness, and News) more appealing than a third-party service. With our CloudRail API Integration Solution we help developers to connect to various APIs much faster. One of the most notable adjustments was $20 million in operating leases. These days, fewer investors pay attention to fundamentals and the red flags buried in financial filings. footnotes) of hundreds of thousands of financial filings to unearth critical details. Back up and sync docs, photos, videos, and other files to cloud storage and access them from any device, no matter where you are. The combination of the firm’s slowing growth rate and higher expectations make a future beat more difficult.  With more Realistic User growth implied by the current valuation offers neither the most of! World ’ s implied future NOPAT in this best-case growth scenario, private. Upload and transfer files to the proliferation of noise traders, the primary of... $ 1.1 billion in stock-based compensation expense excess cash traders, the future for cloud-based storage is... Notifications, calls, apps, photos & Videos Automatically! ♠» ️ large files scenarios also Dropbox. Cloud-Storage market create and share your photos & Videos Automatically! ♠» ️ accounting would! I first warned about Dropbox prior to its IPO in March 2018, the value... 2: Dropbox ’ s free cash flow ( FCF ) generate substantial profits, music, docs and! S implied future NOPAT in this best-case growth scenario, the estimated revenue growth and reaching profitability, the growth! 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