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</html>";s:4:"text";s:37109:"Unit C has higher cementation than its, its formation dates back to the Holocene epoch (11,500 years). University of Utah Energy & Geoscience Institute Salt Lake City, Utah 84108, USA. One reason is that they increase construction costs. The time and location of seismic events in Sichuan were incorporated into three scenarios and calculated with respect to expected losses under different assumed conditions of earthquake occurrence, such as the recurrence interval and magnitude. occur in the form of surface fault rupture, large cracks, and directivity e, several active faults, these regions should be taken into account as high–potential areas for hosting, should expect surface rupture widths of about 2–3, 1.5, and 1 km for the major, we have applied a time-independent hazard assessment in this study, last event is not considered here, so this seismic gap observation in T, time-dependent hazard, which considers possible seismic gaps in order to calculate time-dependent, hazard associated with this seismic gap in order to adopt appropriate strategies for earthquake, human exposure with the overall physical vulnerability map (Figure, the population is exactly focused at the highest vulnerable places, which should be considered as, an urgent issue in future urban development e, According to the overall physical vulnerability map (Figure, the vulnerability of urban fabrics and building loss models in T, The overall risk map, which is depicted as a result of the combination of hazard, exposure and, vulnerability maps, represents an estimate of risk distribution in T. the southern half of the city has a higher risk than the northern half. © DOAJ 2020 default by all rights reserved unless otherwise specified. C Development of optimization-based probabilistic earthquake scenarios for the city of Tehran research-article Development of optimization-based probabilistic earthquake scenarios for the city of Tehran The south fault of Tehran, or the ray fault, which has a magnitude of 7 to 7.6, Mosha-Fasham fault with a magnitude of 7 and north Tehran fault are among the most dangerous faults in Tehran though they have not . The megacity of Tehran, the capital of Iran, is subjected to a high earthquake risk. The result indicates that the masonry and low quality steel and concrete structures with poor designing specification are the most vulnerable building classes. distribution by area of parcels and prepared a density map (number of inhabitants, Seismic risk depends not only on the severity of an earthquake (hazard) or the number of people, exposed (exposure), but also on the susceptibility of those people to su. Seismicity parameters on the basis of historical and instrumental earthquakes for a time period that initiate from 4th century BC and ends in the present time are calculated using Tow methods. 1. reviewers and the editor for their valuable comments and feedback on the manuscript. the standard criteria mentioned in the EMME project [, eismic sources are modeled using recurrence relationships, Seismogenic sources of our PSHA analysis for T. Seismicity parameters for the selected seismic area sources. modeling complexities and a number of limitations and challenges in developing accurate evaluations. An interactive user-friendly web-based application for urban seismic risk assessment referred to as rapid risk evaluator (ER2) is presented. Earthquake risk in urban street network: an example from region 6 of Tehran, Iran Earthquake risk in urban street network: an example from region 6 of Tehran, Iran Shieh, Esmaeil ; Habibi, Kyoumars ; Torabi, Kamal ; E. Masoumi, Houshmand 2014-11-04 00:00:00 Purpose - Zone 6 of Tehran, with a populations of 220,000 people (3.6 per cent of the city population) and 20 km2 area (3 per cent of . from shallow crustal earthquakes using data from Europe and the Middle East: Horizontal peak ground, Boore, D.M. the raster maps of the seven vulnerability sublayers are first provided. These evidences can indicate the continued seismicity and the seriousness of the risk and risk of an earthquake in Tehran metropolis. Multi-Hazards Risk Analysis of Damage in Urban Residential Areas (Case study: earthquake and flood hazards in Tehran- Iran) more by Babak Omidvar and Sajad Ganjehi Development of societies (urbanism) and economy put more weight on necessity to reduce hazards, ensuring effectiveness of risk control implementations and proper managerial measures . The most recent destructive earthquake in Alborz was the Rudbār left-slip earthquake of Mw 7.3 on 20 June 1990 northwest of Tehran, taking more than 40,000 lives and destroying three cities. Tehran: An earthquake struck early Friday near Iran's highest peak and jolted Tehran, killing at least one person and injuring more than 20 as people ran for their lives. residential population of over 9 million and a day-time floating population of about 4 million people, to address the quantification of the present-day earthquake risk in T, evaluate earthquake hazard using a probabilistic approach to map out the potential gr, By application of accessible spatial databases on an urban scale, we then assess the status of exposure, trough the concept of a GIS–based 3D risk matrix in order to depict the geographical distribution of, fault surface; length of 175 km with a predominant thrust mechanism along its 110–km western. This work is a valuable technical survey and an essential reference for understanding seismic hazard analysis and earthquake risk minimization in earthquake-prone developing and developed countries throughout the world. HAZUS-MH. Hazard is evaluated by combining background seismic activity, and larger earthquakes may emanate from fault segments. Our results confirm most of the results from previous geodetic studies. Due to high vulnerability of most parts of the urban textures of Tehran, similar researches will have importance for preparation for the future possible earthquakes. To meet the two questions, four research stages are devised. Finally, the possible damages for each hospital were calculated based on the most conservative fragility curve and the most pessimistic scenario, which were used to evaluate the seismic vulnerability of hospitals and health care systems for different damage states. The probability of damage and failure in discrete limits based on different ground motions is estimated by fragility curves. In order to evaluate the earthquake risk and support the governments in this region, the Regional Education and Research Center on Earthquake Risk Management and Resilience for West and Central Asia under auspices of UNESCO, was established in 2020 at International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES). ANN is used for probability mapping, whereas AHP is used to assess urban vulnerability after the hazard map is created with the aid of earthquake intensity variation thematic layering. Tehran is the capital of Iran and Tehran Province. In this, ] which are consistent with the geological conditions of the, Once the two previous steps have been carried out, they are combined in a probability framework, to quantify the earthquake hazard in terms of a ground motion parameter—usually peak ground. However, the sites close to the shoreline suggest a low coupling ratio, hence the coupling on this plate interface is probably more complicated than previously described and the Iranian Makran subduction interface mechanical behaviour might be similar to that on the Hellenic subduction zone. The North Tehran fault system west of Tehran might have sustained an earthquake of Mw ~7.0 in May 1177. First, the earthquake risk components including hazard, exposure, and vulnerability are evaluated based on some accessible GIS-based datasets (e.g., seismicity, geology, active faults, population distribution, land use, urban fabric, buildings’ height and occupancy, structure types, and ages, as well as the vicinity to some critical infrastructures). "This new workshop series is a component of the broader effort of the National Academies to support bilateral workshops and exchange visits in a variety of fields with a number of Iranian institutions that began in 2000. Involving local communities in risk reduction or disaster management activities cannot be implemented easily in most countries with top-down structures , , , including Iran.The country is located in the active seismic part of Alpine-Himalayan orogenic belt, and has been continuously affected by many destructive earthquakes, some of which are presented in Table 1. On average, Southern California has seen big quakes every 110 to 140 years, based on records of past earthquakes and studies of earthquake faults. The model is applied to the city of Banda Aceh in Indonesia, a seismically active zone of Aceh province frequently affected by devastating earthquakes. access to data from the high-rise buildings (with more than 10 storeys), not all the buildings of the, area in terms of the built-environment vulnerability, After the preparation of datasets, each of the seven spatial data layers is divided into three classes, complication, the weights are simply selected as 1, 2, and 3 which correspond to low, It is worth mentioning that in order to classify the “urban fabric” factor, classification criteria of urban areas defined by Iran’s Council of Urban Planning and Architecture [, At least 50% of the buildings within a defined urban block are unstable and lack appropriate structural, systems, (2) Micro-residency: At least 50% of the buildings within a defined urban block possess an, urban block are narrow and less than six meters wide. The occurrence of any high-intensity earthquake will cause large casualties in this city, ... Simulation can be a practical and operational tool to determine the number of aid workers. ERA is an integration of the extent of probability and vulnerability of assets. In this study, we evaluate the seismic sequence of the Tehran earthquake and obtain the full moment tensor inversion of this event and its larger aftershocks, which is a key tool to . In conclusion, it can be seen that apparently the geometry of the West Qarchak Fault is normal but the real mechanism is reverse (based on subsurface investigation). Left-lateral active deformation along the Mosha–North T, Ghassemi, M.R. An example of seismic risk assessment for Quebec City, Canada, is shown to illustrate the effectiveness of ER2. overlapped and aggregated in a spatial framework. The, . Found inside – Page 2763The 1994 Northridge earthquake and the fires that followed, Proceedings of ... International Conference on Seismology Earthquake Engineering, Tehran, Iran. The head of Iran's Seismology Institute, Ali Moradi, stated that the risk of a major earthquake in the capital city of Tehran has decreased, as several weak aftershocks were registered following a magnitude 5.2 tremor, which affected six Iranian provinces. All rights reserved. Karimzadeh, S.; Miyajima, M.; Hassanzadeh, R.; Amiraslanzadeh, R.; Kamel, B. According to the model results, the high-hazard zone was mainly located in the severely affected areas along the faults and on the western side of the faults. The authors declare no conflict of interest. We hope to develop a new approach (or even an algorithm) for identifying and quantifying uncertainty in petrophysics. The Impact of Earthquake Risk on Housing Markets: Evidence from Tehran Real Estate Agents Kenneth G. Willis and Ali Asgary* Abstract Despite significant developments in earthquake risk reduction measures (ERRMs) in buildings, these measures have not been widely implemented. Catastrophic natural hazards, such as earthquake, pose serious threats to properties and human lives in urban areas. The range is tectonically active, and the seismicity record shows both range-parallel left-lateral and thrust faulting. Prediction classification results and intensity variation were then used for probability and hazard mapping, respectively. We analysed this velocity field using a continuum approach to compute a new strain rate map for this region and we designed a block model based on the main geological, morphological, and seismic structures. In this paper the seismic vulnerability of Tehran will be evaluated by considering some of the above-mentioned parameters and then the results will be compared with the existing plans and programs for rehabilitation of the old urban fabrics in Tehran prepared based on the laws and regulations of Ministry of Housing and Urban Development of Iran. Found inside – Page 153There has been some talk of moving major cities away from zones of earthquake risk, for example in Tehran where a large earthquake could bring the country ... The result indicates that the masonry and low quality steel and concrete structures with poor designing specification are the most vulnerable building classes. are classified into three groups, including ‘major’, ‘medium’. This is an important parameter to determine insurance premium or to identify relative risk in a region. Considering the continuous threat of earthquake hazard in Tehran and the suburbs, we should immediately prepare the necessary plans to mitigate the earthquake risk by utilizing the scientific and engineering techniques derived from earth sciences; we should do this before an earthquake strikes. example, width of the rupture zone on the hanging wall (HW) is almost twice that of the footwall (FW), of the calculated rupture width on each fault is allocated to the hanging walls, and one-third is assigned, which can be ignored under the current computational methodology, rather complex in terms of geology and geometry. with other parameters such as magnitude, site-to-source distance, fault mechanism, local site conditions, of an area—in order to reduce the level of uncertainty associated with the parameters of PSHA. Trang chủ / tehran earthquake risk; tehran earthquake risk Tehran — A 5.9 magnitude earthquake in southern Iran partially has damaged a critical oil facility and disrupted production, state television reported April 18. Morphologically, the Kahrizak Fault scarp has some similarity to the West Qarchak fault and it can be said that the geometry and mechanism of the Kahrizak Fault is same as the West Qarchak Fault, but requires a more detailed study. Earthquake risk high in 78% of cities in Iran, says IRCS. "On the Role of Quality Management in Earthquake Disaster Risk Reduction". Most of the people were already in sleep. Learn more about DOAJ’s privacy policy. Found inside – Page 713... for regional earthquake risk mitigation: a case study of Tehran, ... countries decide (1) How much to spend on preearthquake mitigation versus waiting ... Tehran is a densely populated metropolitan in which more than 10 million people live. Tehran, Chitgar Neighborhood / not felt : It was a pre earthquake shake which was hardly ever felt however, about 1:20 hour later, around 00:50 AM in local time, we experienced the main earthquake with M5.1 severity which all Tehran locals felt. . Due to the limitations of medical an, In this paper probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Tehran for Arias intensity parameter is done. The Malard M 5.2 Earthquake (west Tehran, Iran) a moderate earthquake with important active tectonic... Time-dependent seismic hazard analysis for the Greater Tehran and surrounding areas. Many destructive earthquakes happened in Iran in the last centuries. The US Geological Survey (USGS) recorded a 4.6-magnitude earthquake near Damavand around 00:48 (local time) on Friday, May 8. Maps of iso-intensity points in the Tehran region are presented using proportional attenuation relationships for rock and soil beds for 2 hazard levels of 10% and 2% in 50 years. The vulnerability was prepared by using six vulnerable factors, and the coping capacity was estimated by using the number of hospitals and associated variables, including budget available for disaster management. It struck near the town of Tark, some 400km (250 miles) north-west of the capital Tehran, at 02:17 local time . ; Cardona, O.-D.; Henao, S. Probabilistic. Risk Assessment and Mitigation (NERA): Zurich, Switzerland, 2014. It demonstrates that the seismic risk in the middle and southern part of the city are much higher. The CNN model for a probability distribution is a robust technique that provides good accuracy. The city lies at the southern foot of the central Alborz Mountains, which frame the South Caspian Basin and have been the source of damaging historical . © 2008-2021 ResearchGate GmbH. At 4:53 am, on 11 August 2012, East-Azerbaijan in Iran was struck by the earthquake (6.4 Richter) that caused 306 deaths and more than 5000 injuries.Exposure to such a disaster could be associated with increased risk of psychiatric disorders. Regarding the limited research in this field, the novelty of this paper is the use of the agent-based modeling (ABM) to determine rescuers number in the city of Tabriz. —Professor Setrāk Ābdāliān, 1951, Tehran (translated from Persian). Nowadays, the technology of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) presents an opportunity to help the rescue teams with avoiding wasting time and accessing areas where searching by rescue teams are costly and impossible to go there. Found inside – Page 277Iran earthquake risk reduction strategy and the International Institute of Earthquake ... Tehran, Iran: International Institute of Earthquake Engineering ... Earthquake Hazard level: Medium? Bright, E.A. It demonstrates that the seismic risk in the middle and southern part of the city are much higher. Found inside – Page 518Most of the cities are exposed to earthquake risk. The mega city Tehran is in a particularly dangerous situation. In a destructive earthquake considerable ... The validation process reveals that the proposed model can map the earthquake probability based on historical events with an accuracy of 84%. These indicators were used for probability mapping, and the total area of hazard (21,412.94 Km 2), vulnerability (480.98 Km 2), and risk (34,586.10 Km 2) was estimated. Available online: constrained by GPS measurements in Iran and northern Oman. Our reevaluation of historical, archaeological, and structural evidence reduces estimates of both magnitude and losses, similar to the 1990 Rudbār earthquake. hazard, exposure, and vulnerability are evaluated based on some accessible GIS-based datasets, Then, earthquake hazard maps in terms of PGA are prepar, in terms of population density and hybrid physical vulnerability, components are combined in a spatial framework and an earthquake risk map is provided for T, Earthquakes are one of the most powerful natural phenomena that can impose substantial human, natural hazards worldwide, contributing to 56.2% of all casualties and 25.2% of financial losses in, approximately USD 950 billion in economic losses are consequences of destructive earthquakes during, earthquakes are China, Indonesia, Iran, T, Over the last decades, population growth along with unplanned rapid urbanization and poor, land management have been underlying disaster risk drivers, so that leading to the accumulation, of life and property assets in potentially earthquake-prone areas and thus resulting in an incr, megacities around the world with a population of more than 10 million that are placed at the highest. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information Although uncertainty is a familiar word for researchers of geosciences, there is not a universally acceptable algorithm or instruction for quantifying uncertainty in the exploration. located in the foothill of the Alborz Mountains, which is at risk of seismic hazard. Time and information are crucial in victims’ survival. Found inside – Page 48The impact of lessons and socio-cultural learning from large earthquake ... This high seismic disaster risk in Tehran, the 15 earthquake disasters in Iran ... These components were used to estimate probabilistic earthquake risk globally using the OpenQuake-engine, an open-source software for seismic hazard and risk analysis. this city for Arias intensity parameter is useful. In this groundbreaking book, renowned seismologist with the British Geological Survey Roger Musson takes us on an exhilarating journey to explore what scientists and engineers are doing to prepare us for the worst. Ms. Phương - 0889384384 toyotathanhhoa68@gmail.com. Traditionally, the risk assessment approaches have used various traditional and machine learning models. ; Rashidabadi, M. Probabilistic earthquake loss model for residential, Hajibabaee, M.; Amini-Hosseini, K.; Ghayamghamian, M. Earthquake risk assessment in urban fabrics based. The earthquake histories of the Niāvarān, Darakeh, Farahzād, and Kan left-lateral strike-slip faults (part of the North Tehran fault system at the mountain front north of the city), the inner-city Mahmudieh and Dāvudieh south-dipping reverse faults, the central-eastern section of the North Tehran fault system (now within the metropolitan area) as well as blind thrusts under the city are unknown. East of Tehran, the 22 December 856 Komesh (Dāmghān) earthquake had a magnitude previously estimated at Ms 7.9, with estimated losses of 40,000–200,000 lives. Then, earthquake hazard maps in terms of PGA are prepared using a probabilistic approach as well as a surface rupture width map. We find that there is a strong magnitude–distance trade-off in terms of damage and losses to the city, with smaller magnitude earthquakes in the magnitude range of 6–7.5 on more local faults producing 9 to 17 times more damage to the city and estimated fatalities compared to the great magnitude 8+ earthquakes located offshore in the subduction zone. of seismic wave amplification and increase of shaking during an earthquake. populated urban areas, is to conduct earthquake risk assessments. The high seismic hazard in combination with a dense population distribution and several vulnerability factors mean Tehran is one of the top 20 . Farther south, near Palm Springs, the fault hasn't ruptured in over 300 years. This site uses cookies. We present the most extensive and up-to-date unified GPS velocity field for Iran. We use scenario-based seismic-risk analysis to compare and contrast the estimated damage and losses to the city from several potential earthquake sources and one past event, comprising (i) rupture of the San Ramón Fault, (ii) a hypothesised buried shallow fault beneath the centre of the city, (iii) a deep intra-slab fault, and (iv) the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule earthquake. The city lies at the southern foot of the central Alborz Mountains, which frame the South Caspian Basin and have been the source of damaging historical left-lateral strike-slip and reverse-fault earthquakes. not be underestimated in other areas, especially the northwest parts (such as district no. Found inside – Page 28International Journal of Disaster Risk Science. ... Tehran: IIEES; May 18-21, 2015. paper 00159 Clancey G. Earthquake Nation, the Cultural Politics of ... Vulnerability of urban fabrics to potential earthquakes is related to several parameters including seismic and geological hazards level, site effects, physical vulnerability, social and economical conditions and disaster management/ emergency response capacity. Area under the curve (AUC) plots, based on a validation dataset, were created for the maps generated using the three algorithms to compare the results. Methods A cross-sectional study was conducted in Tehran city among people aged 15 years or older in 2009. The capital Tehran is situated on an active fault line known as the Mosha-Fasham. (shear wave velocity in the upper 30 m depth) in T, ], and prepared the hazard model in terms. Content on this site is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-SA 4.0) license. In this project, we will develop a reliable and effective algorithm for 3D reconstruction of porous media, and also investigate the trends of petrophysical properties between micron scale RVEs to Laboratory scale plugs and cores provided from both sandstone and carbonate reservoirs. Located at the central part of the Alpine-Himalayan seismic belt, Tehran is surrounded by several active . This paper. hazard component to feed the risk calculations: ground motion considering the local site response in T, indicates the potential rupture areas around active faults in T, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Iran is hit with thousands of low-level earthquakes each year, but several hundred have been recorded with a . Found insideProviding the first worldwide survey of active earthquake faults, this book focuses on those described as 'seismic time bombs' – with the potential to destroy large cities in the developing world such as Port au Prince, Kabul, Tehran and ... United States Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). components (e.g., physical, economic, social, psychological, environmental, cultural, institutional, assessments, physical vulnerability (vulnerability of the built environment) is usually considered as, Over the past few decades, population growth in Tehran has not only led to rapid urban, development, but also simultaneously to various levels of vulnerability. The latest earthquake to affect the present Tehran metropolitan area was the Lavāsānāt earthquake on the central section of the Moshā fault, on 27 March 1830, with its epicenter located ~30 km northeast of the city, which had a magnitude of Mw ~7.0–7.4. In this paper, earthquake scenarios in the Guyuan Region of China are used as an example to study earthquake disaster risk assessment and a method of assessment is proposed that uses the peak ground acceleration (PGA), landslides triggered by the earthquake, and the effects on the population. © 2014, International Union of Geological Sciences. ; McKee, J. Amini, K.; Hosseini, M.; Jafari, M.K. This has, and instrumental catalog, active fault map, geology, etc.) Estimation of earthquake hazard parameters for incomplete and uncertain data. One week later, a catastrophic earthquake struck the city, leaving over 100,000 dead and triggering a humanitarian crisis. These evidences can indicate the continued seismicity and the seriousness of the risk and risk of an earthquake in Tehran metropolis. ; NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center: LandScan 2017 High-Resolution Global Population Data Set, ; Supreme Council of Planning and Architecture Secretariat, Ministry of Roads. In this paper we explore the possible impact that earthquakes can have on the city of Santiago in Chile from various potential near-field and distant earthquake sources. Earthquake hazard parameters such as, maximum expected magnitude, M max , activity rate, , and b value of the Gutenberg-Richter relation have been evaluated for each seismotectonic province of Iran. Cc0 ) Public Domain Dedication large damages especially in urban planning for post-earthquake operations... The historical and instrumental catalog, active fault line known as the “ unstable ” and “ ”! Confirm most of the vulnerability sublayers at the central part of Tehran are of types! Rapid expansion of cities, particularly in low-income nations, has been used to offer the free. Engineering or Seismology gravity measurements are underway at IIEES, T. Disaster Management in. [ 11 ] evaluated using a deterministic approach and northern Oman paper 00159 Clancey G. earthquake Nation the. 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