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";s:4:"text";s:22262:"Rival military coalitions in Libya are no longer fighting, and the UN has restarted negotiations … Bangladesh major is too much water in the monsoon and drought in the dry season. But gauging the effectiveness of these programs is complicated, and reliable evidence is scarce. ... South Asia. TOC: Introduction: Is Autonomy a … This report cites from the best work in the field, which includes that of SSG members, and offers a short and accessible assessment of China’s activities across the region as well as crisp recommendations for U.S. policymakers in the executive and legislative branches of government. By the same token, U.S. policymakers need to have a clear conception of where and why to balance Chinese malign influence, rather than try to compete with Beijing everywhere, at all times. Moreover, although freedom of the press, strong civic institutions, rule of law, and elections are all critical in their own right, they will also help respond to Chinese malign influence in the region. Daniel Markey, School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University Research shows positive messaging does spread widely on social media, even in deeply conflict-affected areas, and local peacebuilding groups have had some success promoting such messages online, especially in concert with real-world activities. Nawazish Ali. At a time of instability and increasing tensions in many countries, online spaces have become a contested and often violent terrain. Washington needs to have a frank dialogue in noncrisis moments about the prospects for future crises, what role the United States and China may or may not play, and the consequences that could occur in a nuclear crisis, including setbacks to the Indo-Pacific strategy. Andrew Wilder, United States Institute of Peace, Project Director: Jacob Stokes, United States Institute of Peace Tanvi Madan, Brookings Institution Strengthen governance, empower women, expand economic opportunity, increase environmental resilience, promote international cooperation, Cross-cutting critical issues that warrant deeper investigation to inform our program strategies, Insight and analysis on Asia’s development, A vibrant community empowering women and girls across Asia, Equipping young people to address complex challenges across Asia, militants produced sophisticated, in-house video coverage in real time for an engrossed online audience, Violent Conflict, Tech Companies, and Social Media in Southeast Asia, A Flight Path to Recovery for Tourism in Timor-Leste, For International Women’s Day, Conversations with Some Remarkable Women, The Future of Work for Women in the Pacific Islands, Vogue Paris Spotlights Lana Condor’s Vietnam Girls Scholarship, Rapid Response Fund Buoys Mongolian Women Entrepreneurs Hit Hard by Covid, Insights on China’s 2021 White Paper on International Development Cooperation. The relationship between trade and conflicts between countries in South Asia is important to examine because of the rising prominence of this region of the world. India-China border tension: A new flashpoint in South Asia. The relationship, though, will necessarily evolve from its Cold War and post-9/11 roots, in which the two states attempted strategic convergence, not always successfully. A constructive working relationship between Washington and Islamabad is in both countries’ interests and should persist given nuclear and terrorism threats emanating from the region. International norms and standards are also lagging behind, and Southeast Asian governments and institutions will need to be active participants in this global conversation. Washington should work to prove the notion that accountable, democratic governance offers the best path to sustainable growth, political and social stability, and preventing foreign interference in sovereign states. The siege of Marawi lasted five months, causing over a thousand deaths, the displacement of hundreds of thousands of civilians, and widespread destruction across the city from government airstrikes and artillery and the razing of churches and public buildings by militants. Vikram J. Singh, United States Institute of Peace The fluid contest for influence among and between South Asian states makes it difficult for Washington to maintain good relations with countries across the entire region simultaneously. Subnational conflicts are the most deadly, widespread, and enduring violent conflicts in Asia. But strategic pressure from Beijing will likely make the case in New Delhi for bolder moves, such as hastening the modernization of India’s military, conducting joint military exercises, making the U.S.-Australia-Japan-India Quad militarily effective, and expanding intelligence cooperation and military interoperability to get closer to Washington and other democratic partners. Research Team: Colin Cookman, Lucy Stevenson-Yang, Emily Ashbridge, Alison McFarland, Zaara Wakeel, Henry Tugendhat, United States Institute of Peace. In addition, Southeast Asian state actors may themselves be protagonists in these violent conflicts and may use their legal sway over platform companies to silence the voices of peaceful dissidents and to prevent scrutiny of their own efforts to manipulate or misinform. Joint de-escalation is optimal, but policymakers should assume U.S.-China deconfliction or tacit coordination, rather than cooperation, is likely the best-case scenario. In any given conflict zone, the characteristics of the online space reflect local levels of literacy, the presence or absence of common languages, the penetration and speed of internet connectivity, the prevalence of smartphones, local preferences for particular apps, and the nature of the conflict itself. Devastation in Marawi, the Philippines, 2017 (Photo: Adam Burke / The Asia Foundation). U.S.-Pakistan relations need to be rebalanced to focus more on enhancing economic ties and people-to-people interactions and less on security assistance and operational access issues. Visit China’s appeal lies in offering development financing where the strings attached are related to Beijing’s concerns, such as political issues like Hong Kong, contracting with Chinese firms, adopting Chinese standards, and gaining strategic access. Amid this growing digital arms race, the governments of several countries have also launched sophisticated operations employing disinformation techniques to spread messages via fake Facebook accounts and false news stories—in some cases intentionally inflaming communal violence against religious minorities, and in other cases undermining democratic processes. v. Officials in Beijing are driven by aspirations of leadership across their home continent of Asia, feelings of being hemmed in on their eastern flank by U.S. alliances, and their perception that opportunities await across Eurasia and the Indian Ocean. Op-Ed / Asia 13 November 2020 Sri Lanka: Under Rajapaksas' Watch, Rule of Law Suffers the Onslaught of Politics The politically-motivated Presidential Commission of Enquiry has been distorting politically-connected criminal suspects into victims, and investigators and legal reformers into criminals. Alyssa Ayres, Council on Foreign Relations - The Africa Report. Keeping the situation at a low boil serves Beijing’s aims better by forcing India to divide its resources and attention and to fear the specter of a two-front war. As Southeast Asia’s many long-standing conflicts adapt to this new landscape, concerted action will be needed across the board to ensure that online manipulation does not continue to undermine real-world peace and justice. South Asian states are largely fragile democracies. Political calculations play a major role as well. Peter Mattis, Congressional-Executive Commission on China Findings should be shared with allies and partners where appropriate. Previous in blog« A Flight Path to Recovery for Tourism in Timor-Leste, Next in blogHow to Sell an Avocado on Facebook », Jargalmaa Amarsanaa, Tsolmon Gantuya, Tsolmontuya Altankhundaga, and Tricia Turbold. Dave Rank, Jackson Institute for Global Affairs, Yale University China’s support for Pakistan’s territorial claims also bolsters its own. May 2020 – London “Wars Beyond the Armed Forces: Colonialism and Militarisation of Ethno-national Conflicts in Contemporary South Asia.” In Resistance to Empire and Militarization: Reclaiming the Sacred, edited by Jude Lal Fernando, 25-44. The United States should not oppose China’s taking on more of the burden in Pakistan for fostering economic growth and addressing security threats. China’s approach toward India-Pakistan disputes increasingly favors Pakistan rather than adopts a more neutral stance, in part because backing Pakistan helps China constrain Indian power in Asia. This book will be of much interest to students of South and South-East Asia, Asian security, ethnic conflict, peace studies and IR in general. One way to do so would be to continue to advocate for India’s inclusion in the Nuclear Suppliers Group and for U.N. Security Council reform that would give India a permanent seat. In this context, U.S. policymakers will face six major challenges in dealing with China. Some worry that China might even abet Pakistan in future crises to pressure India and to advance Beijing’s territorial claims. Those arrangements are designed to contrast with the liberalizing conditions that accompany Western development assistance. Most countries in the region enjoy a trade surplus with the United States but a large deficit with China, yet Washington rarely uses market access as a foreign policy tool. Fight Over Fish Fans a New Stage of Conflict in South China Sea By Kevin Varley , Adrian Leung , Hannah Dormido , Xuan Quynh Nguyen and Philip Heijmans September 1, 2020, 9:00 PM Patrick Cronin, Hudson Institute Meanwhile, the United States has mostly backed India’s position in flare-ups along the Line of Control and New Delhi’s responses to terrorist attacks in India traced to Pakistan. Early in 2021, the new administration should commission a National Intelligence Estimate of China’s maritime activities in the Indian Ocean and its rimland areas, including both commercial and military moves. Washington needs to conduct quiet coordination and dialogue with regional countries to address Chinese disinformation efforts and Chinese technology gray zone tactics. China seeks access to India’s large domestic market and potential for economic growth. Regional forums can help, by keeping governments and civil society connected with events in neighboring countries and with wider global trends and good practices. The rapid growth of population, economic activities and climate change putting are stress on water resources. But this is not enough. At the same time, Washington should look to disenchantment created by CPEC as an opportunity to rebalance U.S.-Pakistan ties with more modest expectations on both sides. China in South Asia – Conflicts and Interests. Over the last decade, China has become more engaged internationally, including in conflict zones and fragile states of strategic interest to the United States. The report presents the mounting evidence that both violent nonstate groups and governments in the region are using social media to promote inflammatory public narratives, whip up discrimination, raise funds, recruit fighters, and organize acts of violence. Ties between Washington and Beijing have become strained in recent years as the world’s two biggest powers locked horns over geopolitics, technology, economics, and values. For its part, Pakistan gains the support of a powerful partner in China as well as development financing that Islamabad’s shaky economic situation and political instability would otherwise make nearly impossible, barring major governance reforms. Conflict Maps Country Wise. They consider other areas, such as East Asia, more central to advancing their interests. Similarly, American officials should underscore that recent illiberal steps in Kashmir and against India’s Muslim population erode all those benefits and that India’s strategic importance cannot alone sustain the positive relations with other democracies that New Delhi will need to ensure its security. The latest breaking news, comment and features from The Independent. 8:05 AM ET Thu, 31 Dec 2020 Singapore and Vietnam have been successful in controlling Covid and are likely to keep the situation contained next year, said HSBC's Joseph Incalcaterra. Those standards should cover technical hardware and software issues to push back against any Chinese anticompetitive practices. A rich literature on China’s relations with South Asia exists and continues to expand. Washington will be better positioned to compete with Beijing when U.S. regional engagement stands on its own rather than as an instrumental response to China. Yet bilateral tension and mutual suspicion about each other’s activities in the region restrict the prospects for sustained cooperation beyond rhetoric. South Asia’s economic outlook is grim The region is set to plunge in 2020 into its worst-ever recession as the devastating impacts of COVID-19 on South Asian economies linger on, taking a disproportionate toll on informal workers and pushing millions of South Asians into extreme poverty. Creative procurement options, such as equipment leases, to fill critical gaps should be explored. Water dispute between India and Bangladesh is almost as old as the partition of the sub-continent. The China-Pakistan axis is strengthening, which has a detrimental effect on governance and economic reform efforts in Pakistan given the concomitant lack of transparency and accountability. Deepen ties with India—along with facilitating New Delhi’s cooperation with U.S. allies and partners in Asia and Europe—across diplomatic, economic, technology, and military areas. / Senior Study Group members express their support for the general findings and recommendations reached by the group, but do not necessarily endorse every statement or judgment in the report. Ashley J. Tellis, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Randall G. Schriver, The Project 2049 Institute, co-chair Further, China, India, and Pakistan should continue to be engaged to identify steps each country can take to help sustain peace and economic growth in Afghanistan after a peace settlement. The siege of Marawi was fought both in the streets and online. Second, new policy frameworks are needed to promote shared norms and transparent regulation in cyberspace. Even more important, standards consultations should shape the legal and policy regimes governing new technologies to manage trade-offs on privacy, security, data ownership and access, and accountability. Washington might also find a way to engage the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation, perhaps by accrediting the U.S. ambassador to Bangladesh as a representative to the organization. These could include demanding suspension of Chinese arms transfers to Pakistan in the midst of crises, matching Chinese diplomatic support for Pakistan with a U.S. tilt toward India, and mobilizing U.S. allies to impose sanctions on Pakistan over financing and sponsoring terrorist acts against India. The summer 2020 border crisis and deaths of twenty Indian and an unknown number of Chinese troops in Ladakh put New Delhi’s challenge of balancing cooperation and competition in stark relief and will limit China’s ability to pursue opportunities in India for years. Ideally working in conjunction with the Tech 10, the United States should also focus on setting technology standards. Deadly violence in Himalayan region after thousands of troops from both sides face-off for weeks. However, the goal of engaging in South Asian multilateral groups ought to be to signal a long-term U.S. commitment to the region, as well as to learn more about local concerns—not to be drawn deeper into squabbles between neighbors. China’s expanding presence in the region is already reshaping South Asia, which is simultaneously emerging as an area where U.S.-China and regional competition plays out from the Himalayan heights to the depths of the Indian Ocean. In Southeast Asia, where conflicts frequently stem from grievances against the state, policing the internet can violate civil liberties and exacerbate violence. Indicators managed by independent groups like the Uppsala Conflict Data Program and ACLED (the Armed Conflict Location and Events Data Project) provide important data on incidents in the physical world. Washington should coordinate with other democracies to maximize the impact of international support in these areas. Both countries nominally have a mutual interest in countering violent extremism, ensuring strategic stability and crisis management between India and Pakistan, and promoting regional economic development. In countries where China exerts a strong influence, its engagement can have a substantial impact on local and international efforts to curb violence and extremism. Meanwhile, government-led conflict mitigation often devolves into the policing or militarization of online spaces, with no accountability for state actors and no formal recourse for their opponents—a fraught scenario when the military or the police may also be perpetrators of violence. The United States and China both see South Asia as important, although neither considers the region its top geopolitical priority. China’s growing focus on a blue-water navy and power projection to the “far seas” has followed its economic interests. The United States should develop and launch an initiative to quantify and publicize existing, deep trade and investment ties that South Asian states have with the United States and its allies and partners, and how they stack up against China. The Indian Ocean is currently a “far sea” for China, but China aims to make it more of an intermediate one. Such an agenda could include several initiatives, including creating a Tech 10 group of countries with which the United States coordinates on technology issues that includes India as well as other Indo-Pacific partners such as Taiwan, South Korea, and Australia along with G7 countries. Over time, China’s geopolitical objective may expand to matching or supplanting the United States and India as the most capable maritime force in the Indian Ocean region. Rising Hunger. The United States needs to change its diplomatic approach toward the region to make its policy less about responding to China and more about engaging with states in South Asia to resolve problems. USIP China-South Asia Senior Study Group. This is consistent with other findings that report higher conflict rates in low income countries (Collier et al. Finally, peacebuilding and conflict prevention need innovation, collaboration, and learning. Effective protocols for border patrol operations and crisis management can help mitigate tensions but will not stop flare-ups altogether. Debt suspension measures that G20 states, including China, recently committed to provide a good start. Documentation of mitigation efforts is also patchy. These include combating COVID-19, countering violent extremist groups in Afghanistan (though again, these efforts would be hamstrung by China’s repressive Xinjiang policies), managing natural resources (especially water), preventing and adapting to climate change, countering narcotics, and caring for displaced and refugee populations. Still, they recognize that South Asia’s strategic geography and growing population, along with nuclear and terrorism risks, merit sizable allocations of attention and resources. This enhancement of global reach would be akin to the second island chain in East Asia, the end goal being to project influence all the way to Europe. From civil wars in neighboring countries, such as Afghanistan and Myanmar, to more distant conflicts in Africa, China is becoming an increasingly important player in regional and international efforts to mitigate conflict. The United States and like-minded countries have an obligation to act to end the ongoing atrocities and to protect the Uyghur people. Such partnerships can and should all be deepened and broadened without reference to China. Similarly, Beijing supports the ongoing peace process but focuses on aligning its efforts with other major powers and regional players, including Russia, Pakistan, and the United States. Major Chinese investments in Pakistan are less harmful to U.S. interests than they could be in other places and are likely to result in blowback against Chinese interests eventually. The Sino-Indian boundary originated in 1834, with the conquest of Ladakh by the armies of Raja Gulab Singh under the suzerainty of the Sikh Empire. Smart responses led by civil society can also foster more effective governance under fragile conditions, especially when local technical specialists are able to work directly alongside government and social media companies. While many important steps have been taken, none have had a noticeable impact on Beijing. Jacqueline Deal, Long Term Strategy Group LLC At the same time, social media also enabled the emergence of new violent groups in the country, including the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), a poorly armed militia of foot soldiers that used messaging apps to organize and prepare for assaults on police forces, and the Arakan Army, a much better equipped and trained ethnic Rakhine armed organization. Some issues in South Asia should be insulated from the strategic competition between the United States and China, that is, not used to gain geopolitical leverage against Beijing. Beijing wants to expand its influence in South Asia for its own sake and to force India to devote time and resources to its neighborhood rather than to project influence into East Asia. 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